Local governments in the cities, wards, towns, and villages are required to formulate effective policies for various social problems (e.g., population decline, low birthrate and aging population, etc.). In planning policies, it is necessary to quantitatively verify the effect of introducing policies without relying on empirical rules, and simulating future prospects has been considered for some time.
In simulating future prospects, one of effective prediction methods may be to calculate a model by regression analysis of the time series data of an objective variable (a variable indicating the effect of introducing a policy) and an explanatory variable (a variable highly related to the objective variable). For example, a regression analysis is conducted using time series population data as an objective variable, and time series the marriage count data as an explanatory variable to calculate a model, and an expected value of an explanatory variable when the policy is introduced (an expected value of the marriage count data when the policy is introduced) is input into the model. Thus, according to the above prediction method, it is possible to calculate the predicted value of the objective variable (population data) as a future prospect and to quantitatively obtain the effect of introducing the policy.